Thank you all! I ended up compromising, in a way.
I had two events to attend back to back, and I wasn't sure what the temperatures would be like.
The first was a really neat opportunity, a sort of mini-course. I went to the university art gallery, where the education director there and a local author whose work I admire led a group of us on a gallery tour, discussing several of the works of art on display. Then we each had some time to spend with one or more of the artworks in order to brainstorm towards a piece of writing in response to the art. Three weeks from now we'll go back and read our piece to the other participants. In the meantime, the author will read drafts and give us feedback.
After that I went to a farewell party for a former colleague who is moving to Montreal. This was held in a local pub. I walked from one venue to the other -- about a half hour walk.
So, at the gallery, I actually wore #1/2. No need for an extra jacket there.
At the pub, I wore #4.
And outside, I wore my wool pea coat over top of the whole thing! Nude hose or not, it was way too cold to go out there without a wool coat today! Actually, the hose kept me surprisingly warm. Day Vies, these ones are actually lighter than my skin and it was bugging me. I'm pretty pale, but I often have this problem. I'm paler than the next shade up, but not pale enough for these. Oh well. Live and learn.
Karie, this is indeed the LLBean top - my wardrobe staple. I wear this at least once a week. I really should invest in one of the other colours.
Thanks all for your kind comments.