What do you think of Sweden's "no real lockdown" approach? - YouLookFab Forum

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What do you think of Sweden's "no real lockdown" approach?

texstyle

(website)

Veteran

I'm curious, I've been watching Sweden's approach to the pandemic and wonder if anyone else has been watching? They chose not to do a real lock down but instead limited large gatherings to 50 or less, closed only the higher education and recommended people who are elderly or have underlying conditions shelter in place or keep distance from others. They've also recommended anyone who can to work at home.

I've been comparing them to Washington state because it seems that the population is somewhat similar (though Sweden does have more people, they also have a lot of small communities on remote islands).

So far, they have had a higher percentage of deaths for the # of confirmed cases, but only about 75,000 people have been tested. Based on a small study (blood donors only) they show that 11 out of 100 people already have antibodies for the virus.

Seems they figure that eventually most everyone will be exposed to the virus and hopefully create antibodies.

I know only time will tell but it's interesting to have at least one country where lock downs haven't been mandatory as a means to compare approaches.

Does anyone else look at this type of data? I'm a data hound I guess.

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54 replies

Latest reply was from Brooklyn

Niki Lea

Veteran

Our provincial health officer in B.C. gets asked about this approach. She says the risk is that health care systems can get completely overwhelmed very quickly if there's a spike in cases. When the health care systems become overwhelmed, more people's lives are put at risk because they simply can't be helped. That can lead to the deaths of people who may be able to survive with medical intervention.

SarahD8

Veteran

I think it's a disaster waiting to happen but obviously I hope I'm wrong.

The fact that most of the comments on the approach in the English language media come from Anders Tegnell makes it really hard to evaluate what's going on. (Herd immunity guy says Sweden is about to achieve herd immunity...oh what a surprise!)

But the fact that a disproportionate number of deaths are occurring in nursing homes suggests that "lock down the elderly while everyone else goes about their business" doesn't work.

I would take any antibody prevalence studies right now with a huge, huge grain of salt.

Helena

Veteran

I'm definitely not very knowledgeable, but I'm always hesitant about comparisons ... their social structure, health care, population, socio-economic makeup etc. is so different ... this is a bit Canadian of me, but I'm inclined to trust that our policy wonks have thought that option through and determined it wouldn't be appropriate for our context. It's always sensible to keep an eye on what's work elsewhere though, as this is new to everyone, even the smartest wonks!

Flytigress

I don't know enough to have an educated opinion, but it does seem risky.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/2.....ases-death

Suz

(website)

Veteran

What Torontogirl said -- I trust our experts here to know what is best policy for our particular situation. I think it is possible that different approaches work best in different areas -- depending on all the relevant factors.

texstyle

(website)

Veteran

Yes, the hospital demand is a big part of the equation - I guess they were (mostly) prepared for that in Sweden - or think they are prepared at least. It's weird how in one place so many people can die (New York City, Italy, Spain for example) and in others it seems to be much less of a death issue.

Here in the U.S. they are counting pretty much every death even remotely related to Covid-19 as a death from it, so the numbers are skewed yet again in another direction. End result: we will have very limited "real" data to use. I was shocked to see that 80% (or more) of patients put on ventilators in New York hospitals have died. I know hospitals are breeding grounds for pneumonia so I'm guessing that many people with the Covid19 virus (or influenza for that matter) ended up with pneumonia.

In our area of Texas the county has only had 3 confirmed (recovered) cases and I believe all 3 were travel related. Surrounding counties have similar numbers. Very few people have tried to get testing. I'd guess maybe half have been really following the stay at home orders. Many construction workers, etc. are still working today without masks in close contact with one another - even on large scale (big company) jobs for the power companies, telephone companies, etc.

We've been sheltering in place for many weeks except for the grocer (wearing masks and disposable gloves) and post office (same).

It's too bad we all couldn't' have stopped all non-essential airplane travel immediately when this first started. But I know people will simply not give up their travel plans, even if it might kill them I guess. I spoke with people who flew in early to mid-March to New York and other large cities when it was already clear that it was a very bad idea.

The Cat

Veteran

I am of Swedish family, live in a neighbour country of Sweden and have many relatives and friends there. And as you may know, several fabbers live in Sweden. So, the answer to your question whether "anyone else is watching" is: Of course!

I find it alarming that Swedish authorities have been so slow to take action. (By the way, the same could be said about some North American authorities.) A common explanation in this part of the world is that because Sweden, unlike many other countries, haven't experienced war since hundreds of years ago, the Swedes find it hard to believe that something bad could befall them. (Again, the same could probably be said about many North Americans.)

Katerina

Veteran

I am in Sweden. Personally, I am very unhappy and worried about the Swedish strategy. Too little, too slow. We have up to date over 2 000 deaths (10 millions inhabitants) and the curve is not decreasing. Seventh highest reported death rate in Europe. Our neighbors Norway, Finland and Denmark have significantly lower number of deaths. Norway 193 deaths, Finland 172 and Denmark 394 deaths. All these countries have roughly about 1/2 of the Swedish population. They adopted a lot stricter measures than Sweden.
The public opinion here is very divided, some are desperate and try to point out the danger and others support the official strategy.

Katerina

Veteran

Texstyle, btw, the test amongst the blood donors turned out to be faulty, so they will do it again. The results are not reliable, apparently. At the moment, the levels of possible immunity among in the population in Stockholm are based on pure guessing. Not enough testing has been done yet.

Katerina

Veteran

SaraD8, you are right about the spreading in the nursing homes. It has been such a failure. I just read today that over 70 out of 100 nursing homes in Stockholm had the infection. The suspected reason might be asymptomatic transmission from the staff, but I suppose there will be investigations as to why it happened.

Style Fan

Veteran

I am not an expert but I am concerned about Sweden's approach given how little information we actually know about the virus. We are learning new information every day.

Cardiff girl

Veteran

Mmmm,the British government were intially trying to do something similar until the stats showed that the hospital systems would be overwhelmed and 500,000people could die then they changed their plans.l think that we are all watching and holding our breath for Sweden.l hope that their strategy works but I personally feel given the infectiousness of the virus that it is a high risk plan.l think the New Zealand model of hard,early lockdown ,testing and contact tracing has so far been proven to be the most effective response.l take the point that every country is different but biologically we are all human and therefore subject to being infected by the virus .

Texstyle,my understanding is that the virus is responsible for the pneumonia that people develop ie it’s a viral pneumonia not a separate condition that is contracted as a result of being debilitated by the virus although I am sure that people do contract other infections as a result.This is one of the reasons that Covid 19 is so nasty ,it affects people’s lungs and their ability to breathe.

Niki Lea

Veteran

My husband works in the health care system and he says there's also a lot of dialysis happening right now. The virus also seems to attack some people's kidneys and hearts, with men being slightly more susceptible to infection overall for some reason.

Echo

Veteran

texstyle: I don't know if NY is skewing the numbers to make things appear worse. I can see no benefit in them doing that. What we do know is that upper respiratory illnesses can function as a trigger for heart and stroke episodes. The overall inflammation of the body or specific immune responses in response to the infection can cause a heart attack or stroke. That isn't conflating causes, IMO. How many of the 1918 deaths were strictly caused by the flu virus? Very few. Most developed into secondary bacterial pneumonia. Would you say those people didn't die from the flu? It just bothers me that people are assuming NY is lying; it is like people don't want to admit how bad this can be.

Ultimately, I do not know about the Swedish approach. It sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, but I certainly hope it doesn't turn out that way. Without a vaccine, eventually things will have to come down to "herd immunity", but the key is not to overwhelm the healthcare system in the meantime. Being critically ill is bad enough; being critically ill when there isn't even a hospital bed available for you is even worse.

Brooklyn

Veteran

I’ve read that Sweden asserts that it is not pursuing a herd immunity approach (despite what President Trump says). As I understand it, they are pursuing what might be called a voluntary lockdown. The figures I’ve read suggest they have had a significant decrease in traffic, people going to restaurants and other places of public gathering etc but not nearly at the level of neighbouring countries that have a compulsory lockdown. Whether it will be enough, remains to be seen. And they have had a big issue with infections in nursing homes. I think their view is that voluntary measures are more sustainable in the long term, given that a vaccine is still a long way away.
FWIW, I support what our government has done here - compulsory lockdown. But I think the way out of lockdown is going to be challenging. We are being told restrictions will remain in place for at least 6 months, probably more. And no overseas travel until 2021 at the earliest.

Anonymous

I read an article last week that there has become a serious shortage of dialysis machines as so many now need them. Japan just shut down, so that seems a bit late, but people are used to wearing masks and careful not to spread germs ( they avoid touching stair railings and such, even the long stars to the trains.)

Kathie

Veteran

I have family in Denmark and Italy, and they are very concerned about the Swedish approach. I do think differences in socio-economic conditions, overall health care, and availability and funding for healthcare affect the statistics, and all of that data needs to factor into the response. I live just outside one of the largest cities in the US, and sadly, one in which 25% of the population is below the poverty line. It's not a surprise to me that larger cities in the US, with denser populations, and places with high numbers of people with hypertension and diabetes, would have higher death rates. At the same time, 7% of the rural hospitals in the US have closed over the last 10 years, so I also worry about lack of capacity, should areas with relatively few cases now, get hit hard in the future. This is all to say that, in a country as large and diverse as the United States, I think we still have a lot to learn. Personally, I'm mentally planning that I'll be working from home, wearing a mask to the grocery store, and not traveling, going to the gym, nor eating in restaurants for a very long time, likely until there's a vaccine. (I'm also well aware of the privilege that allows me to do that.)

Nodding along with Echo, regarding exact causes of death. It's important to know the actual cause of death, so that we understand risk factors, but these are all still excess deaths, caused in some way by COVI-19.

Edited, because I realized that my comments were equivocal in a way that I did not intend.

April

Veteran

The following is based on science rather than politics or opinion. I apologize if it sounds overwrought - I'm in a family with *lots* of doctors and this is an anguishing time for them all.

Until we have more testing in place everywhere (both for the virus and the antibodies) AND we know exactly who is most susceptible to getting sick AND who might be an "asymptomatic virus shedder" AND we know who is immune (or not) AND we can do this testing quickly and efficiently and repeatedly and without severe discomfort AND we know more about how/when/where this virus lives AND we have a reliable cure or a vaccine (curing viruses is much harder than developing a vaccine) there is no such thing as "different approaches for different places."

When all of those things are learned - which takes lots of time - it might be true that different things work in different places. Until then, there is one approach - stay home, social distance, mask up, wash like a maniac, sanitize everything. There is no other way. That's how science works during an epidemic/pandemic and how it always will work.

Good advice: "In uncertain times, think like a mother."

Janet

(website)

Veteran

April, I absolutely agree. This is a time when the world needs to be working together. This virus doesn't care about borders. It's hard to believe that here in the states, it's being left up to individual states how to best deal with this, but that's a topic that gets into politics, and we best not get me started on that. But I saw a comparison about how this state-by-state approach is somewhat akin to having a peeing section in a swimming pool, and I think that's pretty darn apt.

Gaylene

Veteran

A big YES to everything that April said. And to Janet’s swimming pool metaphor!

Echo

Veteran

*standing ovation* April.

Brooklyn

Veteran

Texstyle, have you been following Taiwan too? They have had a lot of success without a lockdown. I think they were more prepared because of SARS. I suspect our government is now looking closely at their model to provide a way out of lockdown.

A lot of tricky decisions ahead, especially for non-authoritarian countries.

Our government is introducing a (voluntary) phone tracking app for all citizens to make tracing the virus easier in the event of an outbreak. (Not a policing device.) If the take up rate is high, it will help to facilitate easing of restrictions. But people have to be willing to trust the government with their phone and location data, which is a big ask. Still, I’m going to do it and I hope others do too.

Sal

Veteran

I agree with the message that April stated. At the moment that is the safest path forward.

There are many variables here including demographics and general health of population, public health availability, govt support, trust in government, how authoritarian a govt will be, communication strategies, funding, etc

NZ and Australia have taken different approaches with similar results from a new cases data view. Their lockdown is not as restrictive as ours but may go longer - there are benefits to both approaches. At the moment more of their economy is ticking over which has benefits. I can only shop for essential items right now.

History will judge some governments and leaders harshly for their inability to consolidate behind a clear message and listen to science.

Janet

(website)

Veteran

Sal, absolutely yes to your last point. It’s infuriating and dismaying to see so-called leaders sowing confusion and disinformation, in a time when we need just the opposite.

Anonymous

Big yes to what April said! But I can never unsee that pool metaphor Janet :p

Angie

(website)

Fashion Stylist

*A gentle reminder to please keep politics off the forum, even in the off topic section. I know it’s very hard, and I empathize. It’s best not to go there though, especially when emotions run high in these unprecedented times. Please proceed cautiously with your comments on this thread.

Anonymous

I'll behave Angie Deleted that bit!

Tina

Veteran

Thank you, Angie. You are right.

cindysmith

Veteran

While I do understand that it isn't good to shit down so much of the economy, I think it is even more not good to NOT shut it down or rev it back up too soon.

I haven't thought about this too much since I am an "essential worker" in a grocery store, and am terrified of getting sick. I am also trying not to think about how abysmal our federal government's response has been. Because when I think about it, it enrages me.

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