Outfit for a colleague's retirement dinner next Friday. It's at a hotel near the hospital and, since it's sponsored by the department, I feel it's a bit dressier/more formal occasion than if it were just a bunch of us taking him out. Choices:

1.) Athleta sweater dress that (as I mentioned in another thread) I bought mainly so I'd have something warm yet dressy yet subdued in case I had to go to a wake or court or something like that in the dead of winter, with black tights and black Frye booties. I have never worn booties with a dress in my life, but I think these look kinda good, actually. My question is, is this too subdued/boring for a celebration? I'd wear some blingy earrings but that would be it for accessories.

2. & 3.) Max Studio dress (Nordstrom Rack) with either the same booties or with the new brown Frye Veronica Slouch boots. (I went with the dark brown ones after all, guys.) This dress looks a little more festive to me. Hopefully I wouldn't freeze to death in it--the weather's been all over the place. Which footwear do you prefer with it?

4.) Wildcard! I also got this cold shoulder tunic at Nordstrom Rack. I kinda love the print and the crazy sleeves, but pretty sure it's not appropriate for a work function. (Ignore the workout leggings with it; I promise I'd wear nicer black skinnies.) Do you think it's too big though anyway? I'd have ordered the XS if I knew it had as much room in the chest as it does. I was just worried because it's woven.

Thanks for looking and all opinions and advice appreciated, even if it's "okay, start completely over, Andrea."