You look good in all three of the ponchos but if you only choose one, the first one would be my pick, too.

I'm late to the party but happy you went with the first one, it really suits you! Ironically I was walking through Macy's last night on my way to Athleta and thought of you when I saw they had merchandised a large group of nice-looking ponchos together. I stopped and took a quick peek and was going to send you a heads up to check it out because I think most were under $100.