Thank you so much everyone! Angie, can you believe it - I'm not hand-wringing (for now at least ha!), hooray!
Carla, that's a really good question, and I'm wary of answering too quickly, as I think it's an evolving situation given lockdowns, as well as the upcoming seasonal transition (even though we've got loads of winter left, hopefully only a month more of really deep winter *crosses fingers*), and I think my style is evolving too.
The common denominator of my most-worn tops seems to be that they both have some element in interest (e.g. the balloon sleeve, the cableknit texture and colour, the burgundy t) AND they fit a real lifestyle need (the ts are nice enough to transition from yoga mat to grocery store to restaurant; the cableknit is nice and warm for really cold days).
A small amount of duplication with the balloon sleeves (i.e. one neutral one colour) seems to work; on the other hand, my ribbed sweaters, I only wear one of the three on any kind of regular basis. (I know the black would get worn more if I was going out in the evenings, so that can't be fully judged at the moment). But suffice it to say, a variety of colours in a single style doesn't seem to be the best approach for me.
As to silhouette, pattern, etc - I'm not entirely sure! I do feel that I've duplicated a lot of basic pieces in the past on the basis of the 'perfect capsule', and I'm leaving that thinking behind ... and I'm also observing that things I'm drawn to usually have some element of subtle interest to them. For example, I noticed an outfit on tv the other day that I loved - it was a simple burgundy crewneck top, but it had a slight bell sleeve and a bit of pointelle detail - I just loved it and have since noticed those small details do really appeal to me. So that's more a hypothesis than a declaration, I'd say, but one I wouldn't mind playing with.
What do you think? Does that make sense ...?